22.12.2010

Dollar index trading at 80.45, just above support and up trend line on 1h timeframe. Oscilator in oversold zone.

Eurusd currently at 1.3140. Dipping lower after testing resistance at 1.3180. Supports stand 1.3060 and 1.3000.

Gbpaud hit 161.8 fibonacci extension.
Interesting Saxo Bank prediction says Audgbp will drop 25% in the next year. You can read more here: http://www.saxobank.com/about-us/press/Documents/outrageous-predictions-2011.pdf

This is last post before Christmas so just want to wish you all Merry Christmas. Also hope that next year will bring all of us only good days and many pips :)

21.12.2010

Dollar index currently at 80.44, with support at 80.30. Break below support would lead to drop towards 79.80, its lower intraday support. Break above yesterdays high 80.70 would lead to retest 81.30 and higher.

Eurusd currently at 1.3150, capped below resistance 1.3190. Break above would lead to test h4 down trend line as well as resistance area 1.3270 - 1.3290. Important support levels are 1.3060 and 1.3000.

Interesting situation on GbpAud. Pair has reached its 138.2% fibonacci extension target level, heading towards 161.8%. A rally after reaching targets is possible scenario.

Audusd creating possible Head & shoulders to move lower.

Eurusd long term view

On the chart you can see important levels for eurusd i marked on daily time frame (click to enlarge).

Chfjpy 17.12.2010

Chfjpy is coming to an interesting level at 88.00. Price has strongly dropped from here previously. Now we can see a bearish flag beeing created and price reaching the top of it. Oscilator in oversold zone with reversal bearish divergence.

17.12.2010

Euro index at 107.00, just under its resistance and another one higher at 107.40.

Dollar index at 79.60, intraday support with 61.8% fibonacci retracement around here.

update: both playing out well so far:

16.12.2010

Gbpusd currently at 1.5610, after bounce from its demand level at 1.5530, heading towards resistance area 1.5720 - 1.5760.

Dollar index after break of 79.90 went straight to its resistance at 80.28. Its reacting to the down side from there, heading towards 79.90, to test it as its support.

Eurusd after the bearflag break, went to 1.3206. From there it bounced back to 1.3265, testing the broken flag. The nearest support levels are at 1.3180, 1.3080 and 1.30.

15.12.2010

Eurusd currently at 1.3320. It found support at 1.3300.  Nice round level was a resistance on 9.12.2010. On 13.12.2010 price went trough it and since then it is a support. If it holds then we should see price going towards 1.3550 - 1.36 to complete the bearflag on 4 hour timeframe.

Dollar index currently at 79.72 with intraday resistance area at 79.90 up to 80.30.

Nzdusd testing its long term up trend line as well as 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

14.12.2010

Eurusd currently at 1.3450 after yesterdays rally. On 4h timeframe we can draw an up channel, forming a breaflag with a target for long positions around 1.3590 - 1.36 which is a good place to reverse and take low risk short positions with target 1.33.

Dollar index broke yesterdays intraday support, heading towards important demand level at 78.10 - 78.00.

13.12.2010

Euro index currently trading at 107.00, just under minor intraday resistance level. Price has visited this level few times before, so probably not many more sellers left.

Dollar index at 79.30. Testing this support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement for the 2nd time this month.

Gold and silver bounced from their long term up trend lines i mentioned last thursday http://forexoholic.blogspot.com/2010/12/9122010-morning.html

9.12.2010 morning

Asian session brought eurusd a retest of broken trendline with 61.8% fibo at same level.

Targets for Eurusd 1.3080, 1.30 and 1.29.

 

Gold and silver are dropping towards their long term up trendlines.

Yen futures currently at support. Looking to move higher towards 120.5 - 121.0.

8.12.2010 morning view

Eurusd broke 1.3250 yesterday. Today it went to test it as its resistance. Target for shorts around 1.31.

Gbpusd reached its supply level at 1.5800, first important demand level is at 1.5730

Euro and dollar

Eurusd is currently trading at 1.3370. Euro index is at a little intraday resistance 107.00 seen on m15 chart.

 

Bigger picture view:

 

Dollar index currently at intraday support 79.30. It bounced from this level yesterday, but failed to pass 80.00. This could be a second attempt to try break 80.00 and move higher. Support is also a 38.2% fibonacci retracement and yesterdays low.

Usdchf is back near the up trendline on h4 timeframe. Testing the support level it created yesterday.

Update: indexes reacted to the levels

Interesting levels

Audusd reached 9940 (previous source of strong drop) and its reacting to this level. Possible target around 9700.

Usdchf trading close to the lower channel band on h4 timeframe.

Fridays levels (http://forexoholic.blogspot.com/2010/12/nfp-friday.html) are playing out on euro and dollar (euro index at supply, dollar at demand + 38.2% fibonacci).

NFP Friday

Dollar index broke trough yesterdays intraday support, heading towards 38.2% fibo retracement. Oscilator in oversold zone.

Euro index reached its supply level at 107.25, while eurusd hit 1.34 and its testng down trend line on h4 timeframe.

Let's see if those will play out next week.

Quick update evening

Euro is trading just under resistance area at 1.3250, while dollar index went to its intraday support at 80.10.

Both intraday levels, m30.

 

On daily we see Eurusd bouncing from 1.2970, heading towards 1.37 resistance. Dollar index dropping from resistance at 81.50 with its first support at 78.00.

Live intraday entries

2 trades i took today.

First one was eurjpy short. Pair is approaching resistance 111.0 - 112.0. Its a fresh level, price has has dropped from here previously. If we entered at 111.00 and put our stop above 112.00, we still get around 1:2 risk : reward, very possibly even 1:3.

Second one is short entry on gbpusd. I took it at m5 timeframe, price created a cluster of candles which broke to the downside. Price has pulled back to that broken level, thats where was my entry with SL above. Target demand level 1.5560 and lower.

For both positions i risk 2% all together.

update 1: closed half position on gbpusd for 26 pips, leaving rest of it at b/e with target 1.5560
update 2: 2nd half of gbpusd reached the target +65 pips
update 3: closed half eurjpy +55 pips, leaving rest of it at b/e with target 109.00
update 4:  2nd part of eurjpy stopped out at b/e

Quick update

Euro index made a small correction from its supply level at 106.20. Found support at previously broken resistance (105.80 - now support) and shoot up, nailing the supply level again. If 106.30 - 50 gets broken, we are looking for it to move to another resistance just above 107.00.

 

Dollar index broke trough 80.70. Its first important support at 80.30 - 80.00.